TSMC’s third-quarter revenue guidance sets a September test

TSMC reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% year over year and 5.6% from June.[1] August revenue was NT$514.81 billion, up 10.1% sequentially and 53.3% year over year.[1] Together, the two months generated NT$982.39 billion.[1] TSMC’s third-quarter guidance was $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, based on an assumed exchange rate of NT$32 per U.S. dollar.[1] At that rate, the range equated to about NT$1.427 trillion to NT$1.466 trillion, leaving September revenue of roughly NT$444.8 billion to NT$483.2 billion needed to reach it.[1] TSMC said it would announce September revenue on Oct. 8.[1]

The Zacks Consensus Estimate put third-quarter revenue at $45.62 billion, implying 37.8% year-over-year growth.[1] That estimate implied September revenue of about NT$477 billion, approximately 7% below August’s reported figure.[1] Zacks projected EPS of $4.45, up 52.4% year over year; its estimate had risen from $4.03, an increase of about 10.4%.[1] TSMC reported second-quarter EPS of $4.31 per ADR unit.[1] For the third quarter, the company forecast gross margin of 65% to 67% and operating margin of 56% to 58%.[1] TSMC said the steep ramp of its 2nm process would weigh on profitability as production volume increased.[1]

TSMC management described AI-related demand as “extremely robust” and said cloud providers and their customers were signaling a positive outlook.[1] The company raised its 2026 revenue-growth expectation to slightly above 40% year over year in U.S.-dollar terms.[1] It also noted that CPUs were taking a larger role in AI data centers alongside AI accelerators, and said it expected to benefit from demand for x86, ARM-based and RISC-V architectures represented among its customers.[1] Management announced an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona for several more 2nm-and-below logic fabs and advanced-packaging facilities.[1] TSMC also planned 13 leading-edge and advanced-packaging fabs in Taiwan over the next several years.[1]