McKinsey says 11 million U.S. workers may need new occupations by 2035

McKinsey estimates that about 11 million U.S. workers, or roughly 7% of the current workforce, may need to move to a different occupation by 2035 because of AI-related displacement.[1] The firm gives a range of 6 million to 16 million, so the central estimate should not be read as a precise count.[1] The report was released Tuesday.[1] McKinsey’s 11 million estimate is close to its 2023 forecast of 12 million career switches by 2030, according to Fortune.[2]

McKinsey projects that the number of U.S. workers changing occupations each year could triple over the next decade from a historical level of about 215,000.[1] The projected rate is similar to the level U.S. workers experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic.[1] Fortune reports a separate estimate of about 770,000 workers a year making a switch into a growing job that requires little retraining and pays at least as much—roughly 3.6 times the historical average.[2] About 788,000 workers a year made similar moves between 2019 and 2022 without lasting damage, Fortune reports.[2]

McKinsey identifies office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics as the occupational groups whose full-time workers are most likely to need new jobs.[1] Examples include customer-service representatives, cashiers and warehouse workers.[1] The report says some workers are projected to be almost eight times as likely as higher earners to have to change jobs.[1] On the path into new work, Fortune reports that only one in seven displaced workers has a direct route to a growing job requiring little retraining and paying at least as much.[2] Nearly half face an “unpaved” path because of skill gaps or credential requirements.[2]

The estimates depend in part on how quickly companies adopt AI and how that adoption affects worker demand across industries.[1] Catlin said the report did not assess whether demand for workers might fall faster in some occupations than it rises in others.[1] McKinsey’s authors describe the central challenge as moving workers into available jobs, rather than a shortage of jobs.[2] The report suggests providing more detailed, timely labor-market data and funding retraining programs.[1] Catlin also said education has traditionally focused mostly on young people.[1]