IMF chief warns AI could disrupt jobs and tax revenues

Georgieva said AI is taking over routine, repetitive tasks and hollowing out demand for many human workers.[1] She also said AI is increasing low-paying jobs in sectors such as construction, a trend she said was not worth celebrating.[1] The warning reaches beyond the number of roles directly changed by AI: Georgieva said the technology could alter the balance between labor and capital, with consequences for government revenue.[1] She said people cannot yet imagine exactly what work will look like in five years.[1]

The IMF estimates that about 40% of jobs worldwide will eventually be augmented, downgraded or eliminated by AI.[2] Its estimates put AI exposure at about 60% in advanced economies and 23% in low-income countries.[2] Georgieva cautioned against interpreting the lower figure as an advantage: she said AI is less advanced in low-income countries.[2] For professionals comparing exposure across markets, the figures describe differing levels of exposure, not a claim that one group of countries is better positioned overall.[2]

Georgieva said young workers typically start in routine, repetitive jobs before advancing.[2] Young workers in AI-exposed fields have already experienced slower hiring, leaving entry-level applicants more vulnerable.[1] Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam said demand for graduates’ first jobs is declining.[2] He called for governments to make crisis-era employment supports a permanent tool to help young people find work, and to work with the private sector and incentivize firms to hire fresh graduates.[2]

World Bank President Ajay Banga estimated that 1.2 billion young people will turn 18 over the next 15 years.[2] He said the private sector generates 75% to 85% of jobs in any country and will have to absorb most of those young people.[2] Banga cited building infrastructure, setting policy and de-risking private capital.[2] The meeting also raised a separate workforce pressure: rapidly aging populations, particularly in Asia, threaten to shrink workforces.[2]