BCG sees potential to free 40% of banks’ middle- and back-office capacity by 2030

BCG estimates that banks could free up as much as 40% of current middle- and back-office full-time-equivalent capacity by 2030, measured against today’s job profiles.[1] The estimate describes capacity, not the number of employees expected to leave banks.[1] BCG explicitly says freed capacity should not be equated with a net reduction in headcount.[1] It says banks may absorb much of that capacity in new roles, redeploying staff toward higher-value, judgment-intensive work.[1] For workforce planning, the distinction is central: the report frames redeployment as a possible response, not an assured result.[1]

BCG expects leading corporate and investment banks to move from human-led models, where AI supports individual tasks, toward technology-led models that use AI broadly across operations.[1] That shift is more than automating isolated tasks: it implies changes to how work is organised across the bank.[1] BCG says operating redesign will determine whether banks can serve business growth efficiently while maintaining profitability.[1] It also says rising banking revenue creates an opportunity to invest in technology and build capabilities to serve clients more efficiently.[1] The report says institutions that move early could gain an advantage as technology, talent and client relationships grow in importance.[1]

BCG’s report expects the corporate and investment banking (CIB) revenue pool to grow more than 7% from 2025 to 2026.[1] It projects the pool will reach about $1.4 trillion by 2030, with roughly 5% annual growth through that year.[1] The report also projects nonbank financial institutions will take a 23% share of the banking revenue pool by 2030.[2] Within CIB, hedge fund and sponsor revenues are projected to grow about 9% and 8% a year, respectively, compared with 2% for traditional corporate clients.[2] Those figures make the question of where banks direct investment and capacity strategically relevant.[1][2]

By 2030, BCG projects leading CIB banks will have a cost-to-income ratio of roughly 53% and return on tangible equity of roughly 21%.[1] For lagging banks, it projects a cost-to-income ratio of roughly 68% and return on tangible equity of roughly 10%.[1] BCG describes the cost-to-income ratio as a measure of how much a bank spends to generate income.[1] These are projections, not reported results, and the estimates do not establish that AI alone will produce the difference between leading and lagging banks.[1] The report instead puts operating redesign among the factors that will shape efficient growth and profitability.[1]